This year’s historic drought was just one part of the story: New findings reveal an alarming decline of freshwater in the continent’s aquifers.

今年的歷史性乾旱只是故事的一部分↟▩，還遠沒有結束•│。新的發現表明↟▩，歐洲大陸含水層的淡水數量在以驚人的速度下降•│。

As drought dried up rivers and reservoirs across Europe this year, grim warnings from the past surfaced from the depths. Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine, read the inscxtion on a “Hunger Stone” exposed on a bank of the River Elbe in the Czech Republic: “If you see me, then weep.”

隨著今年歐洲的河流和水庫乾涸↟▩，過去的嚴峻警告終於從深海浮出了水面•│。丹·溫恩看到了捷克易北河岸邊一塊“飢餓石”上的題詞↟₪╃▩•：“如果你看到我↟▩，那就哭泣吧•│。”
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Still, as bad as the drought appeared on the surface, a new satellite analysis estimating freshwater availability in Europe shows that “what’s even worse is the groundwater story that people cannot see,” says the hydrologist Jay Famiglietti, director of the Global Institute for Water Security at Canada’s University of Saskatchewan.

加拿大薩斯喀徹溫大學全球水安全研究所主任↟☁·◕、水文學家Jay Famiglietti表示↟▩，儘管乾旱在地表上的表現已經很糟糕了↟▩，但一項對歐洲淡水可用性的新衛星分析資料顯示↟▩，“更糟糕的是人們看不到的地下水情況•│。”

Famiglietti and collaborators analyzed two decades of data from the U.S./German satellite missions known as GRACE to find the rate of change in freshwater stored on the European continent. GRACE’s twin satellites track changes in gravity to measure large stores of water such as those held underground in aquifers; flowing in lakes and rivers; and frozen in ice sheets and glaciers. The larger the water mass, the stronger the gravitational pull.

為了瞭解歐洲大陸儲存的淡水的變化率↟▩，Famiglietti和他的同事分析了美國和德國GRACE衛星20年來的資料•│。GRACE的兩顆衛星利用跟蹤重力的變化來測量各類的水儲存↟▩，如地下含水層中的水; 在湖泊和河流中流動的水; 被凍結在冰原和冰川中的水等•│。水的質量越大↟▩，引力作用就越強•│。

The results suggest a steady depletion of water in aquifers—the porous rock and soil layers underfoot that store most of the world’s non-frozen freshwater—between 2002 and 2022. With some exceptions including Scandinavia, most of the continent is losing far more groundwater each year than is being replaced by rainfall and other recharge, Famiglietti says.

研究結果表明↟▩，在2002年至2022年期間↟▩，含水層(地下多孔的岩石和土層↟▩，儲存著世界上大部分非凍結淡水)的水將持續枯竭Famiglietti說↟▩，除了包括斯堪的納維亞半島在內的一些地方外↟▩，歐洲大陸大部分地區每年流失的地下水遠遠超過了降雨和其他補給所補充的水量•│。


The researchers estimate average overall water loss in Europe at about 84 gigatons a year since the turn of the 21st century. It’s an alarming rate, Famiglietti says, roughly equal to all the water in Lake Ontario, or five times the average annual flow of the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon. The scale—a gigaton represents a billion tons of water—is almost impossible to wrap your mind around. But that’s the scale at which climate change is happening.

研究人員估計↟▩，自21世紀初以來↟▩，歐洲平均每年的總失水量約為840億噸•│。Famiglietti說↟▩，這個流失速度非常驚人↟▩，相當於每年流失一個安大略湖的水量↟▩，或科羅拉多河流經大峽谷的年平均流量的五倍•│。一個gigaton代表10億噸的水————這個量幾乎是超出人們的想象•│。但這就是氣候變化正在發生的規模•│。

The underlying cause is clear, he says. Too little in some places and too much in others, “water is the messenger delivering the bad news of climate change” to people around the world. But excessive groundwater extraction plays a significant role in the losses.

他說↟▩，這背後的原因很清楚•│。在有些地方水太少↟▩，而在另一些地方則太多↟▩，“水是向全世界人民傳遞氣候變化壞訊息的信使”•│。但過度開採地下水是造成損失的重要原因•│。

Climate change and aquifer over-pumping are tied together in a tough knot. As severe droughts become more frequent, agricultural, industrial, and urban users pump more water from greater depths to compensate for lack of rain and record heat. Aquifers can’t recover as they could when the rains returned after historic droughts like those marked on the Hunger Stones of the former Bohemia.

氣候變化和含水層過度抽取是密切相關的•│。隨著嚴重乾旱變得越來越頻繁↟▩，降水量的缺乏和創紀錄的熱量不得不讓農業↟☁·◕、工業和城市使用者從更深的地下抽更多的水來協調正常生活•│。這導致蓄水層無法像歷史上的波西米亞飢餓石上所標記的乾旱那樣恢復到之前的水平•│。

GRACE and other models are part of the growing and urgent case for better understanding and management of aquifers, says the Paris-based hydrogeologist Alice Aureli, chief of groundwater sustainability and water cooperation at UNESCO. This year’s drought was the worst in 500 years, according to European Commission scientists. The specter of scarcity has “made even the water-abundant countries afraid,” Aureli says. “Unfortunately, people take action only when they are afraid.”

聯合國教科文組織地下水可持續性和水資源合作司司長↟☁·◕、常駐巴黎的水文地質學家Alice Aureli說↟▩，GRACE和其他模型是更好地理解和管理含水層的日益增長和緊迫情況的一部分•│。據歐盟委員會的科學家稱↟▩，今年的乾旱是500年來最嚴重的一次•│。Aureli說↟▩，水資源短缺的恐懼“甚至讓水資源豐富的國家都感到害怕”•│。“不幸的是↟▩，人們只有在害怕的時候才會採取行動•│。”
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The GRACE missions

GRACE任務

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, a mission of NASA and the German Aerospace Centre, first sent its pair of satellites into orbit in 2002. The two work like a balance scale, tracking change over time by measuring water’s gravitational pull. The amount of water on Earth remains constant, and the freshwater we need for life is only a sliver of the total. But climate change and other human alterations—from draining wetlands to damming rivers or pumping aquifers—can move that freshwater in significant and dangerous ways, drying a lake or unleashing a flood.

重力恢復和氣候實驗是美國宇航局和德國航空航天中心的一項任務↟▩， 2002年↟▩，他們首次將其兩顆衛星送入軌道•│。兩者的工作原理就像一個平衡秤↟▩，它們透過測量水的引力來跟蹤其隨時間的變化•│。地球上的水量是恆定的↟▩，而我們賴以生存的淡水只是總水量的一小部分•│。但氣候變化和其他人類活動——從排水溼地到築壩修建河流或抽取蓄水層——都可能以大規模而危險的方式移動淡水↟▩，進而使湖泊乾涸或引發洪水•│。

The original GRACE mission, which ended in 2017, “showed us critical things like our global map of groundwater depletion—and that the human fingerprint on the freshwater landscape is the dominant actor,” Famiglietti says. It also showed that the world’s mid-latitudes, including the U.S. Southwest and much of Europe, are drying as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But the drying is not in some distant future; it’s happening now—faster than IPCC projections.

最初的GRACE任務於2017年結束↟▩，“該任務向我們展示了一些關鍵的資訊↟▩，比如我們的全球地下水枯竭地圖↟▩，這些淡水資源附近的人類足跡是淡水資源枯竭的主要原因↟▩，” Famiglietti說道•│。報告還顯示↟▩，正如政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)預測的那樣↟▩，包括美國西南部和歐洲大部分地區在內的世界中緯度地區正在變得乾燥•│。乾旱並不是在遙遠的未來才會發生; 實際上乾旱正在發生↟▩，甚至在以比IPCC預測的還要快的速度發生•│。

In 2018, the U.S. and Germany launched GRACE Follow-On, nicknamed GRACE-FO, a carbon copy of the original mission. GRACE-FO has revealed how little progress has been made in protecting the world’s freshwater, Famiglietti says. “We are simply continuing down the same downward path and in some places, worse,” including in Europe.

2018年↟▩，美國和德國推出了GRACE後續計劃↟▩，綽號GRACE-FO↟▩，這是最初任務的翻版•│。Famiglietti說↟▩，GRACE-FO收集的資料表明人類在保護世界淡水資源方面收效甚微•│。“我們只是在繼續沿著同樣的下坡路走下去↟▩，在某些地方↟▩，情況甚至更糟↟▩，”這其中也包括歐洲•│。

The new GRACE data “ground-truths” what other computer models reveal about aquifer depletion, says Marc Bierkens, a professor of hydrology at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. He and other modelers have long sounded the alarm about the acceleration of groundwater losses as pumping for irrigation, industry, and public supply outpaces the rate of natural recharge.

荷蘭烏得勒支大學的水文教授Marc Bierkens說↟▩，新的GRACE資料“真實地反映了”其他計算機模型所揭示的含水層耗竭的情況•│。長期以來↟▩，隨著灌溉↟☁·◕、工業和公共供應的抽水速度加快↟▩，這已經超過了自然水補給的速度•│。因此↟▩， 他和其他建模者一直在發出關於地下水流失加速的警報•│。

Working with researchers from the International Groundwater Resources Assessment Center and Deltares, Bierkens’ team has also shown how aquifer depletion contributes to global sea-level rise. Most of the groundwater pumped up from wells does not return to its aquifer but eventually evaporates and becomes rain. That rain falls either directly into the ocean—or onto land that then drains to streams and rivers and ultimately to seas. Bierkens estimates groundwater’s contribution to sea level rise at 10 to 15 percent, “large enough to be taken into account when understanding where current sea level rise is coming from.”

Bierkens的團隊還與國際地下水資源評估中心和Deltares的研究人員合作↟▩，他們一同展示了含水層的枯竭是如何導致全球海平面上升的•│。大部分從井中抽出的地下水不會回到含水層↟▩，而是最終蒸發成雨•│。雨水要麼直接落入海洋↟▩，要麼落在陸地上↟▩，然後流入小溪和河流↟▩，最終流入海洋•│。Bierkens估計地下水對海平面上升的貢獻為10%至15%↟▩，“在瞭解目前海平面上升的原因時↟▩，這一數字足以被考慮在內•│。”

While GRACE and other satellite models are good at “picking up big patterns,” Bierkens says, the continental scale is also their disadvantage. Communities and nations can’t manage groundwater sustainably without a clearer picture of its natural and human vagaries: How water recharges, moves through and leaves local aquifers. What specific crops, industries, and urban demands are tapping the water below. Soil types and depths. Vegetation and trees.

Bierkens表示↟▩，雖然GRACE和其他衛星模型擅長“捕捉大的規律”↟▩，但大陸的超大規模也是它們的弱點•│。如果不能更清楚地瞭解地下水的自然和人為變化↟▩，社群和國家就無法可持續地管理地下水•│。因此↟▩，水是如何補充的↟☁·◕、如何流經和離開當地含水層的↟▩，當地有種植什麼作物↟☁·◕、有什麼工業以及城市用水需求↟☁·◕、土壤型別和深度↟☁·◕、植被和樹木等資訊都需要了解•│。

Bierkens is leading an effort to build thousands of such variables into a grid-based groundwater model that covers Earth’s land area in more than a hundred million square-kilometer cells, each a window to the aquifers below. Layered with weather, land-use and other datasets, the model can help clarify the extent to which water losses are being driven by pumping versus climate change and other variables, as well as the solutions possible—the projected effects, say, of restored wetlands, reduced pumping, or recharge projects.

Bierkens及其工作人員正在努力將數千個這樣的變數構建到一個基於網格的地下水模型中↟▩，該模型以超過1億平方公里的單元格覆蓋地球陸地面積↟▩，每個單元格都是通往地下含水層的視窗•│。該模型結合了天氣↟☁·◕、土地使用和其他資料集↟▩，可以幫助闡明抽水與氣候變化和其他變數在多大程度上會導致水的損失↟▩，以及可能的解決方案——比如恢復溼地↟☁·◕、減少抽水或補給專案的預期影響等•│。

Out of sight, out of mind

眼不見心不煩
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Whether from space or a square-kilometer grid, helping people see the fate of groundwater is fundamental to saving it, says UNESCO’s Aureli. Unlike in rivers, where what happens upstream becomes obvious to those living downstream, groundwater’s flow can be disturbed and changed in subtle and surprising ways. There is also a protective sense, “that this is my water, no one can see what I have, so why should I tell them?” Aureli says. “This can be my reserve.”

聯合國教科文組織的Aureli說↟▩，無論是從太空還是平方公里的網格↟▩，幫助人們看到地下水的命運是拯救地下水的基礎•│。對於河流來說↟▩，上游發生的事情對生活在下游的人來說影響是顯而易見的↟▩，但是地下水不同↟▩，地下水的流動可能會以微妙和令人驚訝的方式受到干擾和變化•│。其中還有一種保護意識↟▩，“這是我的水↟▩，沒有人能看到我所擁有的水↟▩，那我為什麼要告訴他們·☁？”Aureli說•│。“這可以是我的儲備•│。”

That mystery and invisibility put the world’s most important source of available freshwater out of sight and out of mind for too long, Aureli says. But this year’s drought emergency revealed the urgency to better safeguard water in the face of scarcity that can desiccate grain harvests in Italy, shutter nuclear reactors in France, and close off major shipping arteries in Germany.

Aureli說↟▩，這種神秘性和隱形性使世界上最重要的淡水來源被人們遺忘和忽略了太久•│。但今年的乾旱緊急情況表明↟▩，保護水資源十分緊迫•│。不然義大利糧食歉收↟☁·◕、法國核反應堆關閉以及關閉德國主要航運動脈等事情將屢屢出現•│。

Member governments of the UN convene regularly around major crises such as climate change, most recently at COP27 in Egypt, and biodiversity losses, the focus of COP15 this month in Montreal. But UN member states have not been able to agree to come together to negotiate on water in nearly half a century. Aureli attended the Mar Del Plata UN Conference on Water in 1977 as an 18-year-old college student. Hardly anyone was talking about groundwater back then, she says.

聯合國成員國政府定期召開會議↟▩，討論氣候變化等重大危機•│。最近一次會議是在埃及舉行的COP27↟▩，以及本月在蒙特利爾舉行的旨在關注生物多樣性喪失的COP15會議•│。但近半個世紀以來↟▩，聯合國成員國一直未能同意就水資源問題進行談判•│。1977年↟▩，18歲的Aureli參加了馬德普拉塔聯合國水會議↟▩，當時她還只是一名大學生•│。她說↟▩，當時幾乎沒有人談論地下水的問題•│。
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The story will be different in spring 2023 when the UN convenes its second major intergovernmental water conference, in New York City. As a lead-up to that meeting, a special groundwater summit this Wednesday and Thursday at UNESCO headquarters in Paris focuses in part on how nations can better share aquifers that span political boundaries. Familglietti will present some of his team’s new satellite findings—being prepared for publication this spring by colleague Hrishikesh Chandanpurkar and others—and make a case for water’s importance in COP and other climate negotiations.

2023年春季↟▩，聯合國將在紐約市召開第二次重要的政府間水會議時↟▩，屆時情況將有所不同•│。作為這次會議的準備工作↟▩，本週三和週四在巴黎聯合國教科文組織總部舉行的地下水特別峰會將會部分關注各國如何更好地分享跨越政治邊界的含水層的問題•│。Familglietti將介紹他的團隊的一些新衛星發現↟▩，這些發現將由其同事Hrishikesh Chandanpurkar和其他人在今年春天發表↟▩，同時他們也將說明水在COP和其他氣候談判中的重要性•│。

Unlike the days when groundwater was shrouded in mystery, “now we have facts in hand,” Aureli says.

不像過去那些地下水被神秘籠罩的日子↟▩，“現在我們已經掌握了事實↟▩，” Aureli說•│。

Wealthy nations also have solutions at hand, says the Danish hydrogeologist Karen Villholth, director of South Africa-based Water Cycle Innovation. Those include ecological restoration, aquifer recharge, and managing demand. Denmark, for example, has cut per-capita water use in half, from nearly 200 liters a day in the 1980s to closer to 100 liters today, she says. Increasing the cost of water, and a focus on reuse and other efficiency measures, have helped make the difference.

南非水迴圈創新中心主任↟☁·◕、丹麥水文地質學家Karen Villholth說↟▩，富裕國家手頭也有解決方案•│。其中包括生態恢復↟☁·◕、含水層補給和管理需求等•│。她表示↟▩，例如↟▩，丹麥的人均用水量減少了一半↟▩，從1980年代的每天近200升減少到今天的近100升•│。增加水的成本↟▩，以及對再利用和其他效率措施的關注↟▩，都有助於改變現狀•│。

Groundwater could also be a “game-changer” for climate justice, Villholth says, given that it’s over tapped in high-income countries and under-developed in low-income ones. As wealthy nations overcome water waste, they can support low-income nations in developing aquifers for basic water supply and small-scale businesses. “Why are most poor countries, like in Africa, not getting support to develop their groundwater resources,” she asks, “when they have not induced a hotter and more hostile climate?”

Villholth說↟▩，地下水也可能成為氣候正義的“遊戲規則改變者”↟▩，因為高收入國家過度開發地下水↟▩，而低收入國家的地下水源開採欠發達•│。 隨著富裕國家克服水資源浪費↟▩，它們可以支援低收入國家開發用於基本供水和小型企業的含水層•│。“為什麼大多數貧窮國家↟▩，比如非洲國家↟▩，沒有得到開發地下水資源的支援↟▩，”她問道↟▩，“因為他們沒有遇到更熱↟☁·◕、更惡劣的氣候·☁？”
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Still, much like climate denial, the myth of freshwater abundance remains entrenched despite mounting evidence otherwise. No recent European water strife reveals it better than Tesla’s first manufacturing plant on the continent. Southeast of Berlin, Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg is ramping up in an area beset by declining groundwater levels. When a reporter last fall questioned CEO Elon Musk about local concerns that the plant will usurp water from the community and ecosystems, he laughed aloud and called her “completely wrong.”

儘管如此↟▩，就像否認氣候一樣↟▩，淡水豐富的神話仍然根深蒂固於人們心中↟▩，儘管有越來越多的證據表明並非如此•│。最近所有發生在歐洲的水衝突都不如特斯拉在歐洲大陸的第一家制造工廠的現狀更能揭示水資源缺乏的問題•│。在柏林東南部↟▩，柏林-勃蘭登堡超級工廠正在一個受地下水位下降困擾的地區加緊發展•│。去年秋天↟▩，當一名記者向特斯拉執行長埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）詢問當地對該工廠將從社群和生態系統中侵佔水的擔憂時↟▩，他大笑起來↟▩，稱她的論調“完全錯誤”•│。

“It’s like water everywhere here,” Musk said. “Does this seem like a desert to you? It’s ridiculous. It rains a lot.”

馬斯克回應說↟₪╃▩•：“這裡到處都是水•│。你覺得這像是一片沙漠嗎·☁？你說的話簡直是無稽之談↟▩，而且這兒降水很多•│。”

Planned expansion of the plant has been delayed amid the severity of this year’s drought.

但事實卻是由於今年乾旱的嚴重性↟▩，該工廠的擴建計劃已被推遲•│。