Scientists now have unambiguous proof that a phenomenon critical to predicting the impact of climate change exists.
Researchers announced Thursday that they had detected the sea level “fingerprint” of the Greenland ice sheet melt, pinpointing the unique pattern of sea level change lixed to the melting ice.
It’s the first time such a fingerprint has been definitively measured. While scientists agreed such fingerprints theoretically exist, the dynamic nature of the ocean had made it difficult to identify them confidently — until now.

科學家們現在有了明確的證據☁↟₪•↟，證明了存在一種對預測氣候變化影響至關重要的現象
研究人員週四宣佈☁↟₪•↟，他們已經檢測到了格陵蘭冰蓋融化的海平面 "指紋"☁↟₪•↟，準確地指出了與冰層融化有關的海平面變化的獨特模式▩✘•╃✘。
這是首次對這種指紋進行明確測量▩✘•╃✘。雖然科學家們曾認為這種指紋在理論上是存在的☁↟₪•↟，但是海洋的動態性質使得我們很難有把握地識別它們☁↟₪•↟，不過現在可以了▩✘•╃✘。

The findings, which were possible with the help of high-resolution satellite observations, detail the unique pattern of sea level change lixed to the Greenland ice sheet. The fingerprints are factored into models to predict overall sea level rise.
The discovery confirms and adds confidence to the sea level changes forecast by computational models. They are critical for understanding the consequences of climate change and preparing for future hazards. It is now more than clear that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating, said Sophie Coulson a postdoctoral fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Coulson is the lead author of the study that led to the findings, which were published in the journal Science.

藉助於高解析度衛星觀測☁↟₪•↟，這些發現詳細描述了與格陵蘭冰原相關的海平面變化的獨特模式▩✘•╃✘。這些指紋被納入預測整體海平面上升的模型之中▩✘•╃✘。
這一發現證實並增加了計算模型對海平面變化預報的可信度▩✘•╃✘。它們對於理解氣候變化的後果和為未來的災害做好準備至關重要▩✘•╃✘。洛斯阿拉莫斯國家實驗室的博士後蘇菲·庫爾森表示☁↟₪•↟，現在非常清楚的是☁↟₪•↟，格陵蘭冰原正在加速融化▩✘•╃✘。庫爾森是這項研究的主要作者☁↟₪•↟，該研究導致了這一發現☁↟₪•↟，並發表在《科學》雜誌上▩✘•╃✘。

Until recently, fingerprint science was restrained by a lack of satellite observations — records documented only the southern tip of Greenland, making it difficult to examine the oceans around it.
The Greenland ice sheet, which covers almost 80% of the island country, contains enormous quantities of frozen water. The rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet is responsible for 20% of the current sea level rise globally, and a recent study predicted its disintegration would raise global sea levels by at least 10 inches, even if people stop burning fossil fuels.

直到最近☁↟₪•↟，指紋科學還因缺乏衛星觀測而受到限制☁↟₪•↟，只有格陵蘭島南端的記錄☁↟₪•↟，這使得研究其周圍的海洋變得困難▩✘•╃✘。
格陵蘭冰原覆蓋了這座島國近80%的面積☁↟₪•↟，其中含有大量的冰凍水▩✘•╃✘。目前全球海平面上升的20%是由於格陵蘭冰原的快速融化造成的☁↟₪•↟，最近的一項研究預測☁↟₪•↟，即使人們停止燃燒化石燃料☁↟₪•↟，它的解體也會使全球海平面上升至少10英寸▩✘•╃✘。

The study was possible thanks to new satellite data shared by the Copernicus Marine Service, data that spanned over 30 years and extended to higher latitudes. Coulson plugged observations of ice-thickness change into a computational model and created a prediction of sea level from 1993 to 2019. She then compared the forecast against the new satellite data — and found a perfect match.

這項研究之所以成為可能☁↟₪•↟，是因為哥白尼海洋局分享了新的衛星資料☁↟₪•↟，這些資料跨越了30多年☁↟₪•↟，並延伸到了更高的緯度▩✘•╃✘。庫爾森將冰層厚度變化的觀測結果輸入一個計算模型☁↟₪•↟，並對1993年至2019年的海平面進行了預測▩✘•╃✘。然後☁↟₪•↟，她將預報與新的衛星資料進行了比較☁↟₪•↟，發現完美匹配▩✘•╃✘。

“It was really an exciting moment for us when we first looked at that side-by-side comparison of those observations to the model predictions,” Coulson said. “The images were staggeringly similar.”

庫爾森說╃·：“當我們第一次看到這些觀測資料與模型預測資料並排比較時☁↟₪•↟，這真是一個令人興奮的時刻▩✘•╃✘。這些影象驚人地相似▩✘•╃✘。”

It was especially surprising because it’s unusual in geophysics to prove something is happening with a certainty of more than 99.9%, Coulson said. But it was clear that the pattern of sea level change revealed by the satellites was the fingerprint of the melting ice sheet — and that the estimation of sea level change predicted by both earlier models and Coulson’s new one was accurate.

庫爾森說☁↟₪•↟，這尤其讓人驚訝☁↟₪•↟，因為在地球物理學中☁↟₪•↟，以超過99.9%的確定性來證明某些事情正在發生是不尋常的▩✘•╃✘。但是很明顯☁↟₪•↟，衛星揭示的海平面變化模式是正在融化的冰蓋的指紋☁↟₪•↟，而且早期模型和庫爾森的新模型預測的海平面變化的估計都是準確的▩✘•╃✘。

“We can really say with great certainty that sea level fingerprints exist,” Coulson said. “The theory was correct.”

庫爾森表示“我們可以非常肯定地說☁↟₪•↟，海平面指紋是存在的☁↟₪•↟，這個理論是正確的▩✘•╃✘。”

Knowing fingerprints can be a tool to accurately predict sea level change is critical because the future of Earth’s oceans is so uncertain.

瞭解指紋可以成為準確預測海平面變化的工具☁↟₪•↟，這一點至關重要☁↟₪•↟，因為地球海洋的未來十分不確定▩✘•╃✘。

“We know global sea levels will rise and that the amount and pace of sea level rise will depend on our greenhouse gas emissions,” Yarrow Axford, an associate professor at Northwestern University who studies the impact of climate change on Greenland’s glaciers and ice sheet, said by email. She was not a part of Coulson’s study.

“我們知道全球海平面將上升☁↟₪•↟，海平面上升的幅度和速度將取決於我們的溫室氣體排放☁↟₪•↟，”研究氣候變化對格陵蘭島冰川和冰蓋影響的美國西北大學副教授亞羅·阿克斯福德在電子郵件中表示▩✘•╃✘。她沒有參與庫爾森研究的物件▩✘•╃✘。

“But how fast the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will respond to warming is a really big unknown, and frankly a very scary unknown,” Axford said.

“但是格陵蘭島和南極洲的冰原對氣候變暖的反應速度究竟有多快☁↟₪•↟，仍然是個未知數☁↟₪•↟，坦率地說☁↟₪•↟，這是一個非常可怕的未知數”阿克斯福德說▩✘•╃✘。

Fingerprints are already used to inform ocean level projections and coastal planning. In the U.S., an estimated 30% of the population lives in coastline communities. Every inch of sea level rise is expected to make coastal storms more catastrophic for those populations.

指紋已經被用於海平面預測和海岸規劃▩✘•╃✘。在美國☁↟₪•↟，估計有30%的人口生活在沿海社群▩✘•╃✘。預計海平面每上升一英寸☁↟₪•↟，都會使沿海風暴對這些人口造成更大的災難▩✘•╃✘。

That is partly because sea level changes can lead to more destructive storm surges, one of the deadliest aspects of hurricanes. Hurricane Ian’s storm surge, along with its winds and flooding rain, has caused devastation across Cuba and Florida. Sea level rise, along with other aspects of climate change, is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

這在一定程度上是因為海平面的變化可能導致更具破壞性的風暴潮☁↟₪•↟，這是颶風最致命的方面之一▩✘•╃✘。颶風伊恩的風暴潮☁↟₪•↟，以及它帶來的風和洪水雨☁↟₪•↟，已經在古巴和佛羅里達造成了破壞▩✘•╃✘。海平面上升☁↟₪•↟，以及氣候變化的其他方面☁↟₪•↟，預計將增加颶風的強度和頻率▩✘•╃✘。

“We’re already being forced to adapt to sea level rise around the world, and we need to do a lot more still to prepare,” Axford said. “Having decent projections of how fast our coastlines will retreat is essential for making tough decisions and the right big investments now in preparation for future sea level rise.”

“我們已經被迫適應世界各地的海平面上升☁↟₪•↟，我們需要做更多的準備,”埃克斯福德說▩✘•╃✘。“對於我們的海岸線將以多快的速度撤退☁↟₪•↟，有一個合理的預測☁↟₪•↟，對於做出艱難決定和現在進行正確的大規模投資☁↟₪•↟，為未來海平面上升做好準備☁↟₪•↟，是至關重要的▩✘•╃✘。”